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Gasser Y avatar image
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Gasser Y asked Gasser Y commented

What is the ideal number of runs to validate a model ?

I am trying to simulate an assembly line that consists of 5 workstations,

My attempt is to run the model several times, that each time FlexSim generates different random output, to finally take the average of the runs (outputs) as the capability of the assembly line.

So, my question is:
What is the ideal, or the most sufficient/reliable, number of runs that I should do, so that the calculated average output is reliable/validated ?

I have another question, please,
I tried to find the most fitting statistical distribution curve for each of the 5 workstations. And I found that, each workstation has a different statistical distribution curve than the others. So, how should I proceed with the simulation ?? Do I use a different statistical distribution for each workstation, or how should I unify them ??

Thank you so much for your time and efforts.

Best Regards,
Gasser Yassen

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outputmodel runstatistical distibutionvalidateunify
5 |100000

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1 Answer

Ben Wilson avatar image
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Ben Wilson answered Gasser Y commented

Have you had a look at the Experimenter? It isn't just for trying different scenarios (though it excels there, too), but you can use it just to gather data across many replications for a single scenario.

It is probably worth working through the experimenter example to get some experience in configuring and using the experimenter (skip the parts regarding Optimization if that doesn't apply to you).

You can then work on your own scenario. You'll get results faster by using the experimenter than you would by running replications yourself because the experimenter is able to run many replications simultaneously, based on the number of cores in your computer. Your performance measures will also be presented with confidence intervals. You should be able to tighten up your confidence by increasing the number of replications. In this way you can figure out how many replications you need in order to hit the confidence that you want. Review the experimenter reference if you need any help configuring performance measures or otherwise setting up your experiment.

All the experimenter links above point to older user manual entries hosted here on Answers, but you can find the same materials for your specific version of FlexSim in the software's user manual, found from the main menu, Help>User Manual. There is a section called Experimenter/Optimizer.

Lastly, if the real-world data for each workstation points to different distributions, you should use the real-world data. If you try to unify them, you will end up with a simulation who's inputs don't match the system you're simulating, and thus the outputs won't be relevant to your real-world system. Stick with the real-world-derived data, unless you have a good reason to change it (like you want to see what a different machine with a different performance profile would do to the system, etc).

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Gasser Y avatar image Gasser Y commented ·

@Ben Wilson

Thank you so much. Experimenter is actually a great tool, it helped me a lot. And thank you also for the hint of using different distributions for each workstation.

I just still have one more question please;
In the experimenter, I viewed the data in "data summary", and the mean value based on 90% confidence was 40.3! How come the mean value is in decimals, even though we are supposed to be working in a discrete event simulation ??

My question in another words: Shouldn't the mean value be a whole number instead of the decimal form ?? As this is a discrete event simulation ??.. Or it just give us a decimal value (The true/actual value), and it's our choice to deal with it whether continuous, or discrete (By approximation). But even if, so why is it called a discrete event simulation then ?

Thank you so much in advance for your time, effort, and appreciation.

Best Regards,
Gasser Yassen.

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Ben Wilson avatar image Ben Wilson ♦♦ Gasser Y commented ·

Hi @Gasser Y,

Via Wikipedia:

A discrete-event simulation(DES) models the operation of a system as a discrete sequence of events in time. Each event occurs at a particular instant in time and marks a change of state in the system.

The "discrete" in discrete event simulation refers to the individual events themselves, not any/every given value in the simulation. Even the time the events occur may have many decimal places of precision.

Depending on what is being simulated and what value you are measuring, you may never encounter a whole number for a given statistic.

Am I misunderstanding your concern?

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Gasser Y avatar image Gasser Y Ben Wilson ♦♦ commented ·

Okay, I totally got it. I do appreciate your help, thank you so so much!

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